It is worth concluding on the subject of VaR by reiterating that it is not a panacea and its results must be treated with caution. Ninety-nine percent confidence levels sound very impressive but for a one-day holding period mean that in one day in 100 we should expect greater losses than specified:
Most models assume normal distributions and no serial correlation and this is not always the case.
Correlation coefficients are calculated on the basis of historic data and there is no guarantee that such relationships will persist.
Standard holding periods may be insufficient to liquidate or hedge all positions.
These three concerns are all most likely to exhibit themselves at times of extremes when the level of potential losses is likely to be highest.
The use of VaR techniques does not eliminate the risk that losses will be greater than that expressed at the stated confidence level.
VaR models do not usually capture all material higher order price or realization risk factors.
Most VaR models do not capture intra-day positions and the actual risk profile may be much higher than that suggested by VAR calculated on the basis of open positions at the end of each day.
VaR is a reporting and analytical tool and most banks with active trading books overlay standard VaR approaches with sensitivity analyses and stress testing. None of these remove the need for banks to put other controls in place. Only offices or branches with sufficient derivatives expertise and adequate risk control systems should be allowed to deal in derivatives, for example. Management has to put in place control systems to set and enforce limits on exposures across a range of different dimensions including counterparty, location, product, currency, country, risk type, risk factor, position limits and VAR limits.
First a few words about transporting your shopping. If you have a car, then obviously you will have more alternatives, being able to travel further and carry home more on each trip. If you’re dependent on public transport, then you’re limited to buying what you can carry. You will also find yourself making more trips to the shops, with buying groceries becoming an almost weekly exercise. You may spend more time shopping, but you will not usually buy things you don’t need either. If you have to carry your shopping by hand, it may be a good idea to take your daypack with you to the shops and put heavy or soft things in it. It is easier to carry that on your back than in shopping bags.
What some people like to do is to do a large grocery shopping trip and then use a cab to take them and their shopping home in relative comfort. Most supermarkets have payphones or courtesy phones to cab companies in-store. The drivers often help to carry the shopping to your door. This is less hassle, saves you time, is more convenient (than waiting for a bus in the rain) and almost fun. The fare depends on how far it is to your home from the shop, how long it takes given the traffic and the company you use. It should work out to about £4 for a distance of less than a mile if using a mini-cab. This same logic applies to just about anything you buy, especially in London. Buying something small enough to fit in a cab and taking it home is often quicker and cheaper than having it delivered to your home at a later stage.
Rising wedge formations are created when the following conditions take place:
The stock market (or other markets or individual investments) rises in price. Trend lines drawn that reflect support lines rise at a constant angle.
Trend lines that reflect resistance, where prices turn down, can be drawn at a constant angle as well, but the angle of rise is less than the angle of the support trendline. The result is a converging channel.
Trading volume decreases as the formation develops. This is an important condition because declining volume during uptrends suggests a reduction in buying pressures.
The pattern tells us that although buying pressures are remaining fairly constant, sellers are acting with increasing urgency.
What is actually taking place during the formation of the wedge? Buyers, perhaps to some extent influenced by the rising trendline itself, are buying with consistency and the angle of the supporting trendline remains constant. However, although buying pressures are holding firm, selling pressures are increasing; the descending resistance trendline indicates that selling is coming in earlier in comparison to new buying levels. Sellers are settling for diminishing amounts of profit relative to new buying levels; selling becoming more urgent with each minor market cycle. With net demand and supply relationships weakening, buying and selling pressures converge. The likely resolution is a downside break from the formation.
Please respect the phrase “likely resolution.” Rising wedge formations, which carry bearish implications, usually provide accurate notice that rising price patterns soon will reverse to the downside. Sometimes, however, patterns resolve positively. Positive outcomes are most likely when wedges develop in an area of heavy resistance, a zone in which there has been heavy trading in the past. From time to time, the overhead supply of stocks that creates resistance simply slows but does not permanently impede gains in the market. When the resistance is overcome, stocks burst upward as investors become aware that a bullish breakout is taking place.